Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, there have been two waves of infections. Both R and growth rates are computed using epidemiological data (such as infection and hospitalisation statistics) from preceding weeks and therefore are not real-time measures. Using these measures, we can estimate indicative dates for when a wave has started and ended, but they are not exact and should be treated with caution. Infection levels are classed as low when the positivity rate falls below 0.1% (these were the levels seen before the start of the second wave). The beginning of that period is the start of a wave. Positivity rate (the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19)įor the purpose of this publication, we define sustained increase in infection levels as lower bound estimates for R rate remaining above 1, and for growth rate above 0 for at least three weeks. Growth rate (percentage change in the number of infections each day) Reproduction (R) rate (how many people one person infects on average) There are three measures we consider when establishing the start and end of a wave: A wave ends when infections return to the low levels seen before it started. Here, we define the start of a wave as the beginning of sustained increase in transmission and infections.
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However, there is no strict definition for a wave or how to determine when it starts or ends. Waves of COVID-19 Defining waves of coronavirus (COVID-19) in EnglandĪ wave of an epidemic is considered to be a period of increased transmission of a disease. Time between symptom onset and death from COVID-19 ranges from 2 to 8 weeks, with reported median times of 16 or 19 days.Ģ. The median delay (lag) between symptom onset and hospital admission varies between 1 and 6.7 days depending on age and whether the patient lives in a nursing home.
The time between COVID-19 infection and symptom onset varies between 1 and 14 days, with an average of 5 to 6 days. The second wave of COVID-19 is estimated to have started at the beginning of September 2020 there was an initial peak in mid-November after which infection levels decreased before rising again in December following the emergence of the Alpha variant the wave peaked in early January 2021 and ended at the end of April 2021. The first wave of COVID-19 is estimated to have started in March 2020 and ended at the end of May 2020. There were two waves of coronavirus (COVID-19) between March 2020 and May 2021 in England there is no strict definition for when a wave starts and ends, however, we can estimate it using the reproduction rate (R), the growth rate and the positivity rate.
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